The 4th Bitcoin Halving Happened Today Morning

The most significant event in Bitcoin happened around 5:45 am today morning.

Every 4 years something interesting happens in Bitcoin. The block reward is cut in half. Half of all the 21 million Bitcoins were mined from 2009 to 2012. The daily supply of Bitcoins was 7200 Bitcoins per day. The block reward in the first epoch was 50 Bitcoins per block. One block is produced every 10 minutes approx. That means 6 blocks in an hour and 144 blocks in a day. 144 x 50 = 7200.

In the 2nd epoch (2012 to 2016) we had 3600 Bitcoins per day issued via mining. Then it became 1800. Then it was 900. Now only 450 Bitcoins per day will be issued for the next 4 years. It’s approximately 4 years because the halving happens every 210,000 blocks.

If you check mempool.space, you will see the 840,000th block in golden colour. That’s the halving block. 839999th block had 6.25 Bitcoins as a reward. The next block only has 3.125 Bitcoins as a reward.

Until recently 900 Bitcoins were issued per day and Bitcoins price is around $64000. If 900 new Bitcoins come into the market every day and the price remains stable at $64,000, it means that $57.6 million worth of Bitcoins are being bought every day. If the demand is less and the supply is more, the price will crash.

Now if the demand of $57m remains the same but the supply is cut in half, the minimum expected price rise is 2x. However, Bitcoin goes up by 10x every 4-year cycle and if it does the same again, we can expect a $500,000 Bitcoin by 2025.

The price usually doesn’t go up immediately because it takes some time for the market to realize the increased scarcity. That’s why post-halving, it takes 3-6 months for Bitcoin to go on a parabolic move to the upside.

Some people say that Bitcoin’s returns are diminishing. We have to wait and see what happens in this cycle.

2026 and 2027 will be a bear market for Bitcoin. Again the next halving will happen around February/March 2028. Again we can see a peak in Bitcoin’s price in 2029. That would be the 5th halving and 6th epoch. The 6th halving will happen by 2032 or the end of 2031. And the market will peak again by 2033.

If Bitcoin stays decentralized and secure, we can expect Bitcoin’s price to be in millions of dollars by 2033. Only time will tell. Patience until then.